UFC 148: Preview and Predictions

UFC 148 takes place in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, July 7th. The facebook prelims begin at 7:25 pm est, followed by the FX prelims at 8:00pm est, and the main card starts at 10:00pm est on ppv. The long awaited rematch between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen is finally upon us, after coming dangerously close to being cancelled. It would’ve been nice to see this fight happen in Brazil, but as long as we get to see these two finally throw down, it could happen in Dana’s backyard for all I care (oh wait, it is). This event will also feature former champion Tito Ortiz’ last fight in the UFC and his subsequent retirement from the sport.  There are some very interesting match ups on this card, right down to the last preliminary bout. I really can’t wait until Saturday night, so lets get right down to it…

Anderson Silva (31-4) vs. Chael Sonnen (27-11-1)

This is the rematch of their 2010 fight of the year performance, where Silva was battered all 5 rounds, until he submitted Sonnen with less than 2 minutes left on the clock. Since then, Sonnen has gone on a disrespectful tirade of WWE proportions trying to get another shot at the champ. Silva is widely accepted as the greatest mma fighter of all time, combining laser beam precision striking with a black belt in BJJ on the mat. He’s undefeated in the UFC, holding the record for most consecutive wins (14), and the most consecutive title defenses (9). Sonnen is primarily a wrestler, but he has been working on his striking over the years. He doesn’t pack a ton of power in his punches, but he is very active from the top position. As we all know, Silva claimed to have an injured rib in their first meeting, and Sonnen was suspended by the commission for showing a 17:1 T/E ratio in the post fight urinalysis. Stylistically, this is the worst possible opponent for Silva, who hasn’t faced many wrestlers in his 6 year stint with the UFC. They have both been training their all around games, but you can bet that Silva has focused on takedown defense, and Sonnen has been working on his submission defense. At the start of their first fight, Silva was actually able to stuff a few takedown attempts, but he discounted the striking of Sonnen, which clearly surprised him. I don’t think Silva will make the same mistake this time. Silva will keep his guard high, working his incredible footwork to befuddle his opponent, while setting up his devastating punches and kicks. There is no safe position for Sonnen in this fight, he is at a disadvantage standing, and he has very poor submission defense (accounting for 8 of his 11 losses). If Sonnen does manage to win this fight, it will be by outlasting Silva for all 5 rounds in hopes of grinding out a decision. Silva has very little chance of winning a decision here, because the fact is, Silva will finish him before that if things go his way. I don’t see the mental game as much of a factor, because even if he did get into Silva’s head, Sonnen also put a lot of pressure on himself with all the smack talk. Chael Sonnen on his best day, after failing his drug test, fought Anderson Silva on his worst day with a rib injury, and he still lost… I think we will see the real Anderson Silva out there on Saturday night, rededicated and more motivated than ever. Silva could win this any way he wants, and I think he WANTS to smash Sonnen’s face… He usually gets what he wants.

Winner: Anderson Silva

Tito Ortiz (16-10-1) vs. Forrest Griffin (18-7)

One of the least anticipated rubber matches in history is finally coming to fruition on Saturday night… Well, at least we don’t have to watch these guys fight other opponents, and it does seem that the stars have aligned to ensure this fight would happen. It may be completely irrelevant in most ways, but it’s still a very interesting fight in a sense. Ortiz is a true veteran of the sport, spending nearly his entire career with the UFC and fighting the best they had to offer. He currently has the record for most fights in the UFC (26), and the most consecutive title defenses at light heavyweight (5). Ortiz is a wrestler who does his best work from the top position, but he has been working on his striking for a long time and has made some progress. The problem with Ortiz is that he’s a dinosaur in the sport, and he has been plagued with injuries from head to toe. Griffin is a TUF champion who also held the light heavyweight title at one point (briefly). He’s a tall and lanky fighter with a long reach, and he seems to fight harder as the fight progresses. In their first meeting, Ortiz won a razor thin controversial decision over Griffin, and it won fight of the year back in 2006. Forrest clearly won the 2nd fight using his long reach to score on Tito from the outside, while stopping as many takedowns as he could. The only time Forrest was ever in trouble against Tito was after being put on his back, where Tito rained down his patented elbow strikes from the guard, ripping Forrest open in the process. I would say this fight goes exactly as it did the 2nd time, but there’s one big difference, this is Tito’s retirement fight. Now that doesn’t mean I’m picking Tito to win, I’m still going with Forrest by decision, but don’t be surprised if Tito goes into beast mode and pounds Forrest into oblivion if he gets the top position.

Winner: Forrest Griffin

Cung Le (7-2) vs. Patrick Cote (17-7)

Cote is a very tough fighter who packs big knockout power in his punches. How many guys can stand toe-to-toe with Drew McFedries and come out on top? Not to many, but Cote is one of them. Cote has never been knocked out in a professional fight, not counting his freak knee injury against Anderson Silva which pretty much turned all the fans against him, and even damaged Silva’s reputation to an extent. His struggles with injury contributed to his next two losses and eventual dismissal from the UFC. Now Cote is back, racking up 4 wins in a row, he has focused largely on his wrestling skills with his teammate Georges St.Pierre and the Canadian national wrestling team. Le is an undefeated Sanshou fighter turned movie star. In fact, he is set to play one of the leading roles in Jean Claude Van Damme’s new movie… Now why am I mentioning that? Well, I like JCVD for one, but also because Le’s fighting performance has seemed to decline as his film career has risen. Le was never a physical specimen, but he possesses some great technique, throwing kicks from different angles than you would expect from an ordinary run-of-the-mill MMA fighter. He is particularly effective with his kicks when he targets the midsection of his opponents. Cote will be the larger fighter in the cage, and he will have a 7 inch reach advantage, but that may not mean much considering that Le is a kicker for the most part (and his legs are longer than Cote’s arms). It’s difficult to pick a winner in this fight because Le can be very unpredictable; all it takes is one perfectly placed spinning back kick to the body, and that’s a wrap son. I just don’t see that happening against a guy like Cote though, he is incredibly resilient, and he is also very dangerous in his own right. If they exchange in the pocket, Cote wins. If Cote is losing the striking battle, he has the ability to take the fight to the ground. At 40 years of age, I just don’t see Le pulling this one out against a guy as determined to win as Cote. Also worth noting is that, win or lose, all of Le’s fights have ended by knockout, so I don’t see this one going the distance.

Winner: Patrick Cote

Dong Hyun Kim (15-1-1 with 1 NC) vs. Demian Maia (15-4)

Maia is a 3rd degree black belt in BJJ, winning a plethora of championships before making the move to MMA. He started off his UFC run in a big way, submitting his first 5 opponents, with 4 submission of the night awards. Until he hit a brick wall named Nate Marquardt and got knockout out 21 seconds into the 1st round. That’s when he joined up with Wand Fight Team and decided to put all of his focus on developing his striking abilities. Maia has definitely improved by leaps and bounds with his striking technique, but he lacks knockout power, and he seems to have set aside his brilliant BJJ skills. Kim is a 4th degree black belt in Judo with an effective array of punches and kicks. Kim is undefeated in the UFC except for a 1st round knockout loss to number 1 contender Carlos Condit. Maia may be technically sound, but his lack of stopping power automatically puts him at a disadvantage, and he’s giving up 4 inches of reach to his opponent as well. Apart from that, Kim will be able to dictate where this fight takes place because of his Judo background and superior physical strength. If that isn’t enough, this will be Maia’s welterweight debut fight, and Kim is a very tough first opponent. If this fight does end up on the mat, Maia will have the advantage, but I just don’t see that happening. Kim will be content to pick up a clear decision win here using long punches, leg kicks, and his control in the clinch.

Winner: Dong Hyun Kim

WAGERS PREVIEW

This section has been submitted by someone who calls himself “Rabbi Ken Nor”. He took some time to peruse the betting lines and prop bets for this event and has some predictions of his own. Now these numbers are based on real betting odds which are not as favorable as the playground odds, but some of it may apply to your playground wagers as well. Hope you guys like it, or at least find it informative.

Here’s a few of the bets I’ve placed:

My ‘Confident’ bets all include Anderson Silva. I don’t see him letting what happened at UFC 117 happen again. I think he wins quickly and aggressively.

Anderson Silva wins @ -260
Anderson Silva/Chael Sonnen won’t go 5 full rounds @ -250
Anderson Silva wins inside the distance @ -162
Anderson Silva wins by submission @ +392

$10 on each bet pays a total of $93.20

The MMAHQ poll for this fight (Silva/Sonnen) shows that one person selected Chael to win by submission and another person took Chael to win by TKO/KO. Here’s those numbers…

Sonnen wins by TKO/KO +1300 > > > $10 bet on the TKO pays $130
Sonnen wins by Submission +2145 > > > $10 bet on the Sub pays $214.50

Here’s a couple of ‘Long Shots’ that have some value.

Tito Ortiz wins by decision @ +601
Fabricio Camoes wins @ +222

$10 on each will payout $102.30

Tito Ortiz only has to win two rounds against Forest Griffin, at 6 to 1 odds, I’d like to believe he can do it. Melvin Guillard loses by submission when he gets beat…and now he’s faced off against a decent submission artist. If Fabricio Camoes can survive the first round he has a shot at defying those +222 odds and making me some good money. I’ll take both these dogs, and just for fun, I’ll even parlay the two together ($10)…meaning, if both win, my $10 turns into $215.72

So, in total, I’ve put $70 out in bets…best case scenario, I win $411.22. Worst case scenario, I Iose my $70 and my wife finds out what I’ve done and I start paying Alimony and Child Support.

Good luck everyone!!!

REMINDER: Don’t forget to make your picks (and wagers) for this event, and enjoy the fights, as we should be in for an epic night of action!

44 Responses to “UFC 148: Preview and Predictions”

  1. MMAKansas says:

    I have been made a believer. I think Steven Seagal is the man. He called Lyoto and Anderson his “children” and I just heard that Anderson trained for this fight with Seagal in Buenos Aires as well as in Cali.

    Segal is the real deal, because if he wasn’t, black house would have exposed him by now, and those guys not only worship his acting and films, evidently from what he said, they all train hard together and he bests them all most of the time, and Andy doesn’t deny it but rather has called Segal “the master” and so on.. kinda nuts..

    • brokenbrain says:

      Steven Segal vs Chuck Norris – who wins??? Haha!

      It’s going to be a good night for the Martial Arts tomorrow night, Kansas. I’m stoked. Enjoy.

      • MMAKansas says:

        Will do, you too man!

        Hmmm at THIS age I say Seagal wins, due to the fact that Aikido doesn’t require a lot of flexibility or fitness.. and they are both old.. lol

      • poop says:

        chuck norris is extremly fit at his age. he would kick
        seagul’s ass

    • Hotpad says:

      Did you watch any of Seagal’s reality show? Dude was hitting match heads with a gloc 17 from about ten yards away. If that was real then hes got inhuman hand eye coordination. People are quick to dismiss him on the interwebs, maybe because aikido isnt relevant in mma.. kind of like the opinion towards judo.

  2. bvrasp says:

    Agreed. Plus, Seagal has the weight advantage :)

  3. Banned says:

    really!? cung le losing to cote? i dont see it. and lets hope chael loses and fails drug test. im torn on wether to pick tito or forrest forrest is better but tito will be motivated and everytime they fight its very close

    • bvrasp says:

      Cote is a serious dude, the only reason he was losing fights was because of the wrestling. Now his wrestling is up to par, and Cung isn’t a wrestler anyways. Chin for chin, Cote beats the old man.

      Dr.J was unable to fix the avatar thing for explorer man. Avatars work fine on any other browser, firefox, chrome, etc. I would suggest chrome, best browser out there by far imo.

  4. Banned says:

    and when we gonna fix the avatars covering up what we post?

  5. MMAKansas says:

    I have heard that Chael is a stand-up guy outside of the cage and promoting fights – like EVERYONE except brazilians like him, and he treats his mom like gold… I wonder if he pulls of lay n pray for 5 rounds this time and then goes on to be a dominant champ??

    I really want to see Andy knock him out -

    • brokenbrain says:

      Hopefully Sensei Seagal has shown Andy another ‘Toe Flick of Death’ type move.

      • MMAKansas says:

        There are MMA journalists calling Seagal names and such .. I’d be careful because Andy does respect him and has paid to have him fly out to his camp, and also Andy has flown to Buenos Aires to train with Seagal – if the foot work and hand work techniques are helping Andy win, why are people being so critical? I guess cause Steve toots his own horn a lot lol..

      • brokenbrain says:

        Kansas…Have you seen any of the recent articles with the Regal Seagal talking about the 3 new moves he’s shown Silva? All he will say about them is that they are NOT illegal. I’m thinking Chael is going to get his knee/leg broken or get a chop to the neck/throat.

        Anyone know what the shortest fight time for a title fight is? BV???

      • MMAKansas says:

        I could see a knee stomp in Chaels future – you see Andy shoulder pop old Chael in the jaw @ the weigh-ins?

      • brokenbrain says:

        Yeah, watched it a few times. It’s going to be a bad night for Chael IMO.
        Did you notice Flock of Seagals nodding his head when Andy gave Chael the shoulder?

      • Hotpad says:

        “anyone know the shortest fight time for a title fight is?”

        Chuck vs Rampage maybe?

      • Banned says:

        probably the fight with randy and vitor where randy got poked in eye and doctor stopped it.

      • Hotpad says:

        @banned

        I was way off with chuck and rampage. I just read quickest ufc title fight was 15 seconds arlovski vs buentello. I didnt see that one.

    • brokenbrain says:

      15 Seconds…damn, that’s a rodeo win. Nice research.

  6. MMAKansas says:

    He said in some interviews that he’s been telling Andy to lose the respect bit for this fight and get mean and nasty.. I kind of expected it. You can look at the interviews around the web from the past few days and see that Seagal is seriously feeding Andy’s more agressive attitude – it’s the only way to shake up Chael at this point and really get in his head or make him emotional so he makes a mistake – I just hope Andy doesn’t get in trouble for physically popping Chael in the jaw like that…

  7. Hotpad says:

    Anyone betting on Chael Ive got a proposition for ya. Any takers?

    • MMAKansas says:

      I’m betting on Chael -

      • MMAKansas says:

        I am cheering for and leaning towards Andy but betting lines always favor the challenger, and Chael is a good wrestler, which seems to be Andys only downfall, and Chael is left handed so Andy cant play southpaw and get a distance advantage.

        I think Andy will find a way to win, but Chael is a better bet.

      • Hotpad says:

        Kansas if chael wins tonight I’ll send $50 to mmahq. If silva wins you send 50.. Sound good?

      • MMAKansas says:

        Are you betting on playground? If so what is your name on playground?

      • hotpad says:

        Im not. Haven’t set up an account yet.

      • MMAKansas says:

        I only do playground, and sig bets. I don’t generally gamble real money.

      • Hotpad says:

        Thats cool.

  8. Paquet90 says:

    you said cote was the bigger man after the weight ins cung looks tank compared to cote

    • bvrasp says:

      Yeah, Cung is more cut but Cote is taller with a much longer reach. I have a good feeling about Cote whoopin that ass tonight.

      • MMAKansas says:

        Cote is about the safest bet on this card IMO

      • brokenbrain says:

        I think Chad Mendes is the ‘safest’ bet. Not a good money maker…but definitely safe.

      • MMAKansas says:

        Yeah second look there, I have to agree with you BB – I did parlay him with Cote on this card for betting.

        I put $1500 on Chael Sonnen but without OD on TRT I don’t know if he can take the shots and keep chugging..

      • brokenbrain says:

        $1500 on an underdog like Chael is huge, Kansas – good luck! If he pulls it off you’ll be rollin’ in it. If Sonnen can get through round two you’ll be in good shape.
        I think a good way to bet this fight is to play Silva inside the distance, and hedge it with Sonnen by UD.
        GL to all…

  9. bvrasp says:

    UFC 148 Links

    Prelims

    http://www.vipbox.tv/watch/59036/1/ufc-148:-main-prelims-only-live-stream-online.html

    http://www.vipbox.tv/watch/59036/2/ufc-148:-main-prelims-only-live-stream-online.html

    http://www.vipbox.tv/watch/59036/3/ufc-148:-main-prelims-only-live-stream-online.html

    http://www.thefirstrow.eu/watch/129680/1/watch-ufc-148:-prelims.html

    http://www.thefirstrow.eu/watch/129680/2/watch-ufc-148:-prelims.html

    http://www.thefirstrow.eu/watch/129680/3/watch-ufc-148:-prelims.html

    http://www.thefirstrow.eu/watch/129680/4/watch-ufc-148:-prelims.html

    http://www.thefirstrow.eu/watch/129680/5/watch-ufc-148:-prelims.html

    http://www.thefirstrow.eu/watch/129680/6/watch-ufc-148:-prelims.html

    http://www.thefirstrow.eu/watch/129680/7/watch-ufc-148:-prelims.html

    http://www.vipbox.tv/watch/42084/1/magic-tv-live-stream-online.html?from=magic

    http://www.online–soccer.eu/

    http://wizguysports.blogspot.com/2012/06/channel1.html

    http://tugalive3.blogspot.com/p/channel-1.html

    Main Card

    http://www.vipbox.tv/watch/45829/1/ufc-148:-silva-vs-sonnen-2-live-stream-online.html

    http://www.vipbox.tv/watch/45829/2/ufc-148:-silva-vs-sonnen-2-live-stream-online.html

    http://www.vipbox.tv/watch/45829/3/ufc-148:-silva-vs-sonnen-2-live-stream-online.html

    http://www.vipbox.tv/watch/45829/4/ufc-148:-silva-vs-sonnen-2-live-stream-online.html

    http://www.vipbox.tv/watch/45829/5/ufc-148:-silva-vs-sonnen-2-live-stream-online.html

    http://www.thefirstrow.eu/watch/129649/1/watch-ufc-148—silva-vs-sonnen-ii.html

    http://www.vipbox.tv/watch/42084/1/magic-tv-live-stream-online.html?from=magic

    http://nutjob.eu/

    http://www.online–soccer.eu/

    http://www.zonetvlive.info/

    http://bhoystv.eu/

    http://tugalive3.blogspot.com/p/channel-1.html

    http://ammsports2.blogspot.com/

    http://nirsports.yolasite.com/

  10. MMAKansas says:

    Preliminaries sucked….. I hope the main card is good … Decision decision decisions

  11. Hotpad says:

    Meh…

  12. Banned says:

    man i called all those decisions just picked wrong guys lol

    • Shalom and good morning fight fans. Lets see where we netted out with our bets after UFC 148.

      $10 – Anderson Silva wins @ -260
      Win – +$13.85
      $10 – Anderson Silva/Chael Sonnen won’t go 5 full rounds @ -250
      Win – +$14.00
      $10 – Anderson Silva wins inside the distance @ -162
      Win – +$16.17
      $10 – Anderson Silva wins by submission @ +392
      Loss – -$10
      $10 – Tito Ortiz wins by decision @ +601
      Loss – -$10
      $10 – Fabricio Camoes wins @ +222
      Loss – -$10
      $10 – Parlay w/Ortiz and Comoes
      Loss – -$10

      So, I put $70 worth of bets out there and brought back in $44. Netting me a loss of -$16. Take away the Ortiz and Comoes bets and it would have been a profitable evening.
      I probably got greedy with my underdog plays and should have halfed the amount I put on them or just bet the parlay. Either way, it’s a lesson learned and we’ll keep moving forward.
      Stay tuned for more wagering sermons.

      Mazel tov and good luck.
      Rabbi Ken Nor

      • bvrasp says:

        excellent work good rabbi, easily the best wagers breakdowns we ever had :)

        Considering how unfavorable some of these odds can be, it’s unavoidable to force some big underdog value plays.

        Quick turnaround for the next one, got any bites for the Fuel 4 event yet?

      • Thank you for your support kind sir…
        Yes, there will be more pearls coming your way for the Fuel 4 event.

        Edit – it should be noted that my loss for UFC 148 was not $16, but $26. All apologies for the incorrect math. We won’t let the baleboste Mrs. Nor find out about that error.

Leave a Reply

Dansette