Shalom money lovers,
Sometimes the best bet is no bet at all. So when it comes to Munoz vs Weidman my betting advise is No Bet. This one is just too close and good arguments can be made for either fighter to win. My pick will be Weidman by UD, but my money will not back it.
There are two fights I feel are safe plays and one fight that may have some hidden value:
Francis Carmont vs Karlos Vemola
I like Francis in this one. His line is around -175 so there is still a decent percentage to be made from a win. He’s got a great camp/coaches and has looked dominant in his two UFC outings. Karlos is a little wild and has had stamina issues in the past. Francis for the win providing the line doesn’t get above -200 or so.
James Ta Huna vs Joey Beltran
James’ only loss in his past 4 UFC fights has come from Alexander Gustafsson – a top contender at 205. When he does lose it seems to be by submission for the most part. Mr Beltran has only one submission win to his name and it was in 2007. The line for JTH is currently around -345. There isn’t much to be made on this fight, but I do believe it’s a safe way to make approx 30% on your money.
TJ Dillashaw vs Vaughan Lee
TJ’s line is somewhere between -350 and -400 (depending on your book) and Vaughan Lee around +280. I feel TJ’s line is misleading. In his last fight against Walel Watson, TJ used his wrestling to dominate all 3 rounds…however, he had multiple choke attempts (in just about each round) and couldn’t finish. This inability to ‘pull the trigger’ and finish the choke/sub/fight is why I feel he is over valued. His chin may be suspect too, as we saw against J. Dodson. I’m not saying Vaughan Lee will win or should win, but I don’t trust the steep line TJ’s been given by the odds makers. Yes, TJ should win…no, it’s not as kosher a bet as the numbers suggest.
the Rabbi’s UFC on Fuel 4 plays:
Francis Carmont for the win and James Ta Huna for the win, with equal units on each should be a relatively safe investment with a small return. If you’d like to up the risk a bit to up the return a bit try putting both fighters in a parlay.
A riskier bet with a fatter return will be a small play on Vaughan Lee. There is a small chance he can almost triple your investment – but make it a small bet.
The only other plays I may make are Marcelo Guimaraes and Alex Careses for the win(s)…depending on their lines.
So far, there are no Props available that I’m interested in.
Meahel lekha mazal tov
Rabbi Ken Nor