UFC 150 brings another title fight to the betting table, and the lines are pretty close for this one. The king of the re-match, Frankie Edgar, attempts to get his Lightweight belt back from Benson Henderson. I like Henderson in this fight…but have no logical explanation for it other than I think he’s bigger and better, so I’ll keep the bets small. To compliment my unexplained ‘Henderson for the win’ @ -180 bet, I’m also playing ‘Fight doesn’t start round 5′ @ +261… and then to add the unjustified to the unexplained I’ve played ‘Henderson wins by Submission’ @ +623.
Should Benson Henderson lock in the guillotine choke in the 4th round (or earlier) it will pay me almost 10 to 1.
I like Hermans over Sheilds, but it’s because I see some value in his dogged number (+160). He’s got a great sub game, which I’m hoping leads to good sub defense, he’s got power and he’s got a great chin. Once again, just small bets. Along with that small play on ‘Hermans to win’ @ +160, I’m also playing ‘Herman/Sheilds doesn’t go 3 round distance’ @ +170. I think Hermans will get the TKO, however, if Jake does get on his back and a hold of his neck I’m covered. It’s always nice when my secondary bets also cover multiple outcomes. Kosher!
I like Max Holloway against Justin Lawrence for two reasons; 1) his striking, 2) the last couple seasons worth of TUF fighters don’t excite me (John Dodson excluded)…Yet, I still won’t make more than a baby bet on this one either. Holloway straight up @ +125 is good enough. The lines for this fight are swaying so pick and chose the right moment to buy in. Just for the record, if J. Lawrence was @ +125 instead of -125 I’d probably be close to betting him. He has the ability to ‘Fitch’ the full 15 minutes away.
Cerrone should beat Guillard, but it will be hard to put my money on it. I may just play ‘Fight doesn’t go 3 full rounds’. Cerrone could quite possibly Sub Guillard, and Guillard could catch Cerrone with a flurry of punches – my best guess is one of those options is correct. I’ll probably distance my wallet from this fight.
Yushin Okami is a huge favourite over Buddy (Dobby) Roberts, I’m going to pass on him though. At -500 to -600 there is very little to be made from an Okami win, but I’ll keep him in a parlay or two. And, after Yushin let Tim Boestch punch him in the face repeatedly, he worries me straight up for the win. I played ‘Fight goes 3 full rounds’ @ -160 and ‘Not Okami inside the distance’ @ -179. Okami will probably win, but I feel Roberts has enough game to make it into the later rounds and the altitude will help slow Okami’s attack as well. Once again, should Dobby land a few upper cuts and put Okami to sleep, the latter bet covers me there too. Kosher again!
There is some value in the ‘Fight goes 3 full rounds’ Prop for just about all the fights. Statistically speaking, around 50% of the fights go to a decision. This card being in Denver, Colorado, with it’s high elevation should slow the fighters down a bit and draw out the fights. Any of the fights that have close lines, wrestler based fighters, and heavier fighters in them should consider this Prop…
…I’d recommend playing this prop on Denis Bermudez vs Tom Hayden if it comes out. Two in-efficient oxygen consuming wrestlers with big shoulders. Play the Prop if you see it.
Don’t forget, there’s a title fight on the card…be sure to make a bet with some one.
Meahel lekha mazal tov
Rabbi Ken Nor