Shalom money lovers…

Finally, another fun-filled Saturday night of punches, kicks, submissions, and money making is just around the corner.  It’s been a while, so let’s get straight to the numbers and see where value is hiding.

Jones vs Belfort – There are two plays here that I like as possible money makers, and one that is as ugly as a red-headed step child.  First, the ugly bet…taking Jones to win at -800 to -900.  Don’t do it!  You’ll have to wager $800 to $900 just to make $100.  In a sport where anything can (and will) happen, don’t set yourself up to lose your mortgage payment for a measly 10% return.  The juice is not worth the squeeze betting Jones for the win.  However, I was able to get a Jones wins Inside the Distance prop at -350 that I feel is valued.  I may include Jones for the win in a few parlays, but the bigger chunk of the money I’ve set aside to bet on the main event is Jones ITD.  For my other bet I’ve taken a very small portion of my main event budget and put it on Vitor for the win.  Why?  Cause he has a punchers chance and it would pay almost 7 to 1 (I got him at +680 when the lines first came out).
Recap:  90 % on Jones ITD – 10% on Belfort wins.

Benavidez vs Johnson – As of right now I have no plays on this fight.  Joey B should win the Oompa Loompa title, however, I have a hard time counting Mighty Mouse out.  He went the distance (5 rounds) with a bigger Dom Cruz, and he improved greatly between the first McCall fight and the second…it’s hard to bet against him.  I probably won’t touch this fight unless I see a prop like ‘fight starts second round’ or the over/under is low and the lines are positive – which won’t happen.  This should be a good fight for the Manlets and I’m looking forward to watching it and not betting on it.

Stann vs Bisping – I’ve got 2 great plays here and have a good portion of my next mortgage payment tied up in this fight.
1.  Stann wins inside the distance @ +295
2.  Bisping wins by Decision @ +146
The math:  $100 on each = $200.  Stann wins – I win $295 (plus my initial $100).  Bisping wins – I win $146 (plus my $100).  Either way I’m going to come out a winner.  Stann could win by decision and Bisping could TKO Stann…but that’s not likely.  Bisping grinds out decisions and Stann KO’s people and this is only a 3 round fight – I really like these plays.

Hettes vs Brimage – I’m all over Hettes here.  His value is shitty at @ -400 (or so), but after his performance again N. Phan it’s almost impossible to bet against him right now.  I’ll make a small bet and a small profit…life is good.

Oliveira vs Swanson – I like Oli’s chances and his line (-220).  This may be too technical of a fight for Swanson.  I see a first round of boxing and kicking, followed by an early second round sub by CO.

Grant vs Dunham – Here’s my underdog pick of the event.  I bought into TJ’s line at +210.  Maybe he should be the dog, but not a 2 to 1 dog.  I keep referring back to the Dunham/Bailey fight when in the 3rd round Dunham was teeing off on SB and couldn’t finish him.  If Dunham can’t TKO/KO Grant and the fight hits the mat I can see Grant finding his back and getting the RNC.  Once again, this is my long shot (my Ed Herman pick), I’ll bet small and hope to win big.

Update – I ended up placing two more smaller bets on Jones/Belfort doesn’t start round 3 @ -225, and Jones/Belfort doesn’t start round 4 @ -365.

That’s all I’ve got for this event.  Good luck to all, and Happy New Year.  The Earth is now officially 5773 years old!

What Dinosaurs???

Meahel lekha mazal tov

Rabbi Ken Nor

P.S – Because your Rabbi never stops giving, here’s a decent NFL parlay for this weekend:

San Francisco/Dallas/Indianapolis/Pittsburgh/New Orleans – pays 1 to 4 ($100 wins $400)

GL

2 Responses to “UFC 152 Wagering”

1. bvrasp says:

   September 20, 2012 at 2:52 pm

   Nice work Rabbi, great insight on the Bisping v Stann prop bet, I totally agree.

   Reply
2. Rabbi Ken Nor says:

   September 20, 2012 at 3:05 pm

   Thx BV

   Reply