Shalom money lovers…
Finally, another fun-filled Saturday night of punches, kicks, submissions, and money making is just around the corner. It’s been a while, so let’s get straight to the numbers and see where value is hiding.
Jones vs Belfort – There are two plays here that I like as possible money makers, and one that is as ugly as a red-headed step child. First, the ugly bet…taking Jones to win at -800 to -900. Don’t do it! You’ll have to wager $800 to $900 just to make $100. In a sport where anything can (and will) happen, don’t set yourself up to lose your mortgage payment for a measly 10% return. The juice is not worth the squeeze betting Jones for the win. However, I was able to get a Jones wins Inside the Distance prop at -350 that I feel is valued. I may include Jones for the win in a few parlays, but the bigger chunk of the money I’ve set aside to bet on the main event is Jones ITD. For my other bet I’ve taken a very small portion of my main event budget and put it on Vitor for the win. Why? Cause he has a punchers chance and it would pay almost 7 to 1 (I got him at +680 when the lines first came out).
Recap: 90 % on Jones ITD – 10% on Belfort wins.
Benavidez vs Johnson – As of right now I have no plays on this fight. Joey B should win the Oompa Loompa title, however, I have a hard time counting Mighty Mouse out. He went the distance (5 rounds) with a bigger Dom Cruz, and he improved greatly between the first McCall fight and the second…it’s hard to bet against him. I probably won’t touch this fight unless I see a prop like ‘fight starts second round’ or the over/under is low and the lines are positive – which won’t happen. This should be a good fight for the Manlets and I’m looking forward to watching it and not betting on it.
Stann vs Bisping – I’ve got 2 great plays here and have a good portion of my next mortgage payment tied up in this fight.
1. Stann wins inside the distance @ +295
2. Bisping wins by Decision @ +146
The math: $100 on each = $200. Stann wins – I win $295 (plus my initial $100). Bisping wins – I win $146 (plus my $100). Either way I’m going to come out a winner. Stann could win by decision and Bisping could TKO Stann…but that’s not likely. Bisping grinds out decisions and Stann KO’s people and this is only a 3 round fight – I really like these plays.
Hettes vs Brimage – I’m all over Hettes here. His value is shitty at @ -400 (or so), but after his performance again N. Phan it’s almost impossible to bet against him right now. I’ll make a small bet and a small profit…life is good.
Oliveira vs Swanson – I like Oli’s chances and his line (-220). This may be too technical of a fight for Swanson. I see a first round of boxing and kicking, followed by an early second round sub by CO.
Grant vs Dunham – Here’s my underdog pick of the event. I bought into TJ’s line at +210. Maybe he should be the dog, but not a 2 to 1 dog. I keep referring back to the Dunham/Bailey fight when in the 3rd round Dunham was teeing off on SB and couldn’t finish him. If Dunham can’t TKO/KO Grant and the fight hits the mat I can see Grant finding his back and getting the RNC. Once again, this is my long shot (my Ed Herman pick), I’ll bet small and hope to win big.
Update – I ended up placing two more smaller bets on Jones/Belfort doesn’t start round 3 @ -225, and Jones/Belfort doesn’t start round 4 @ -365.
That’s all I’ve got for this event. Good luck to all, and Happy New Year. The Earth is now officially 5773 years old!
Meahel lekha mazal tov
Rabbi Ken Nor
P.S – Because your Rabbi never stops giving, here’s a decent NFL parlay for this weekend:
San Francisco/Dallas/Indianapolis/Pittsburgh/New Orleans – pays 1 to 4 ($100 wins $400)