Shalom again brothers and bankers,
There truly is no rest for the wicked, and even less for the divine…so let’s get into it. This card will be fun to watch, but hard to bet. I only have 2 plays:
Silva vs Browne – It doesn’t matter who you like in this fight. Either guy can win, either guy can lose, either guy can gas out. Here’s what is keeping me from playing a winner. Browne trains and is coached by Greg “the event killer, yet champion maker” Jackson. You’d think that would give Browne an advantage, however, Silva beat up Fedor pretty good and in my mind that is equally as advantageous. So here is my play, Silva/Browne does NOT go 5 full rounds. I got in at -350 and though the line is weak, it’s a great play. The combined weight of these two monsters will be over 500 lbs and it’s a 25 minute fight. It is very, very rare that a heavy weight fight goes the distance of 5 rounds. I don’t care who wins as long as somebody does in under 24 minutes and 59 seconds.
Dodson vs Da Silva – I will bet Dodson for the win until he loses. I think he’s the best fighter to come out of TUF in a while…a long while. All I know about Da Silva is what I’ve seen on the internet(s) and there has been nothing to make me think he’s going to get the best of Dodson. Da Silva is a submission specialist, but I don’t think he’ll have the speed, the strength or the power to imply his will on Dodson. Oh yeah, Dodson trains at Jackson/Winklejohn in NM as well. Anything -250 or higher is a bargain.
If I was to put money on an underdog for this event (which will be a last minute decision) I’d put my money on Bart P-ski. Diego’s last 9 fights have gone to a decision, so he’s no threat to finish anyone. If I can’t see a way for a fighter to finish a fight I fade them. BP’s line opened at +179, I’d cap this fight closer to evens, a small play would not be a bad decision.
Be careful if you’re wagering on M. Levesseur, he’s the one who thought it would be a grand idea to stick his head and neck in the arm pit of one of the best guillotine specialist the UFC has on it’s roster. He may have 156 division III wrestling wins with no losses…but that means nothing in the UFC. Carlo Prater has over half of his MMA wins by submission, this may be case of ‘stupid is as stupid does’…again.
NFL Parlay – Cincinnati, San Francisco, NY Giants
Meahel lekha mazal tov
the Rabbi Ken Nor