UFC 155 Wagering

 

Shalom New and Old Testamentors…

Happy Holidays.  In this season of giving I have two gifts for you all…

1.  No picks or plays for UFC 155.
I haven’t kept accurate stats from the start of my posts (until Fuel TV 6), but I believe we’ve profited close to 10%.  So instead of risking a losing year with one last set of bad bets, I’m going to take the earnings out of my account and like most people of faith I’m going to give my $$$ to the needy…a Hooker.

2.  Over the past couple of years I’ve been collecting some stats I’d like to share as my final gift to the HQ.   Check these numbers out and use them to help make your picks.

Favourite win % = 69% *
Underdog win % = 29% *

Heavy Favourite (-350 or more) win % = 81% *
Heavy Underdog  (+300 or more) win % = 19% *

-300 to -345 win % = 68% *
-200 to -295 win % = 66% *
-105 to -195 win %  = 62% *

Even win % = 33% *

+100 to +195 win % = 34% *
+200 to +295 win % = 30% *

Finish Stats

Decisions = 46%
KO/TKO’s = 31%
Submissions = 22%
DQ/ND/Draw = 0.01%

Round Fights End In:

Round 1 = 44%
Round 2  = 24%
Round 3 = 7%
Round 4 = 9% (of fights capable of 5 rounds)
Round 5 = 0% (of fights capable of 5 rounds)

* = these lines are taken from actual online odds makers and not the Playground.
I hope you find something useful in here and we can collectively bring our fight camp out of the cellar of our division on the Playground.  And remember, when you can’t figure out a pick for a fight, the statistics above say that your best bet is a first round decision win.

Peace on Earth

the Rabbi Ken Nor

UFC on FX 6/TUF 16 FINALE Wagering

 

Shalom Warriors,

We’ve got a well cultured pile of fights coming our way this weekend, and somewhere in this congregation are money making opportunities.  Due to the large portion of unkown and rarely seen fighters on this card I’m going to keep my plays simple.

Roy Nelson vs Matt Mitione – Matt Mitrione had a poor performance last time he was in the octagon.  Mr Congo got the best of him with a decision win.  What I like about Nelson in this fight is ability to take a punch (which JDS did to him many times over).  Nelson lost that fight, but proved he doesn’t go down easy.  I think Big Country will get the best of Mitione, probably in the latter rounds, and possibly with that big right and put the former NFL’er to sleep.  Large play on Jabba.
20 units @ -225 to win 14.67 units

Mike Pierce vs Seth Baczynski – This seems like a pretty big step down for Pierce who KO’d Aaron Simpson in his last outing (who had only been stopped once before back in 2010 by Chris Leben).  Pierce’s only recent losses have been split decision losses to Koscheck and Hendricks.  Seth is on a 4 fight win streak, but none of those victories have been top notch competition.  Pierce for the win feels right.
Large play on Pierce.
20 units @ -290 to win 12.28 units

Mike Ricci vs Colton Smith – This is another bet based on the Tri Star gym and training partners.  Mike Ricci has a huge advantage in this aspect of the fight.  Training along the side of GSP, Patrick Bateman (Rory Mac), Ivan Menjivar, and their head trainer Falafel Zahabi is once again, an advantage I can’t over look.  I’ll play Ricci for the win.
Medium play on Mike Ricci
10 units @ -245 to win 4.08

Ross Pearson vs George Sotiroloulos – Mr. Sit-los should not be the favourite IMO.  His Jits is great, but hs striking and striking defense has me worried.  He’s also not been in the Octagon since July of 2011 where he suffered his 2nd consecutive loss.  If Pearson can imply the same game plan Herr Siver brought to the fight when he fought G*Sot he should be able to win a UD.
Small play on Pearson
5 units @ +110 to win 7.6 units

Melvin Guillard vs Jamie Varner – Melvin gets it done quick or loses a SD.  I flipped a coin and it came up Melvins.
Small play on Guillard
5 units @ -115 wins 4.35

It would be my recommendation to add Chad Mendes to some of your plays.  His line is at about -1300 which says that as long as he has his mouth piece in and he’s standing when the Ref says ‘let’s fight boys’ he should take the fight.  I’m not going to add him to every play I make, but if I do make a couple parlays he will be in there for a few added %.

Meahel lekha mazal tov

the Rabbi Ken Nor

UFC on FOX 5 Wagering

 

Shalom friends and financiers

So UFC 154 was a KO victory for the odds makers and a loss for my humble Hebrew self.  There are going to be nights like this every once in a while, I don’t stress it – this is the nature of gambling.  By breaking my number one rule of sports betting I got what I deserved (betting the outcome I wanted to happen as opposed to the outcome I thought would happen – Condit).  Let’s get back on that horse and see where it takes us this week.

My large bet for the evening will be this rather conservative parlay:

Diaz/Henderson starts round 2 @ -857
Not Gustafsson Inside the Distance @ -297
Penn/MacDonald Not a Draw @ -18500
20 units to win 10.01 units

I think this play is pretty self explanatory.  If Daiz/Henderson doesn’t start the second round it probably means Diaz locked in a submission and he’s the new LW champ.  It might happen, but it’s doubtful it happens in the first round.  Henderson is too strong and should be able to power out of any sub attempt in the first 5 minutes.  Dan Henderson hit Shogun (hard) for 5 rounds and couldn’t put him away and it took the LHW Champ, JBJ, 3 dominant rounds to finish Shogun.  I don’t think Gustafsson has the power of a JBJ or Dan Henderson.  Shogun may not win, but he won’t be stopped by the Swede in the allotted 15 minutes either.  BJ already has 2 Draws imbedded into his stats, a third would be a bit of a statistical anomaly.  Somebody is going to win that fight.  Plus, it’s just enough to push my parlay to a return of 50% on my bet.

Mike Swick/Matt Brown – I have a hard time seeing how Matt Brown can win this fight, other than a controversial decision.  I think he’s tough and durable, but not the most technical or proficient fighter on the UFC roster by any means.  Swick is coming off a violent KO of D. Johnson and has shed any ring rust he may of had (after being out of competition for almost 30 months).
Small play on Mike Swick @ -140
5 units to win 3.57

Rory MacDonald/BJ Penn – This should be one hell of a brawl!  BJ looks like he’s in great shape and ripped.  He seems motivated and focused.  I really like his approach and mind set for this fight.  However, Rory MacDonald is in just as good of shape, if not better, and seems just as mentally ready.  The tipping point for me is the Tri-Star factor.  This camp has prepared for BJ a couple of times before.  Training with the likes of GSP and the insight he can offer Rory is too big of a advantage to over look.  My money says a well trained and aggressive Rory MacDonald gets the best of the Beej.
Small play on Rory MacDonald @ -240
5 units to win 2.08 units

One last Parlay I’m playing:

Mike Easton @ -230 and Scott Jorgensen @ -240
Scott Jorgensen is coming off a two fight lossing streak, as is John Albert.  Jorgensen is the better wrestler and in order to keep his job with the UFC he needs a win.  I see him dry humping/ground n’ pounding J-bert to a UD.  Raphael Assuncao has faced one dominant striker in his UFC career (Erik Koch) and he lost.  Now he faces another dominant striker in Mike Easton.  History tends to repeat itself.
Medium play on this parlay
10 units to win 10.33 units

I probably won’t play this bet unless I see something dramatic during the weigh-ins, but those of you who are Shogun fanatics and feel the need to back($) him should consider this option.  Try playing Shogun wins inside the distance @ +416 and Gustafsson wins by decision @ +135.  These seem to be the most probable outcomes for the fight (Shogun has never won a decision in the UFC), and either outcome covers the off setting bet while still generating a profit.

Looking to back an Underdog?  This card has a decent sized pool of those given very little chance to win (so say the odds makers).  Here’s 3 Dogs I think have value:
Mauricio Rua, Joey Proctor, and Nam Phan.

If Shogun takes his time and finds an opening he may just knock the blond out of the Swede’s hair.  He’s KO’d the best of the best and it’s ALWAYS a possibility when he steps in the cage.  Gusty has the momentum, Shogun has the power and experience.
@ +196

Ramsey Nijem should be able to control this fight with Joey Proctor.  However, Tony Ferguson showed us that Ramsey isn’t good at getting hit in the face (I believe the term is ‘he’s a bit chinny’).  If the Proctologist manages to connect enough to wobble or stun Ram-Jam he may buy himself enough time to jump on his back and work the sub.  It’s along shot, but possibly worth a sprinkle.
@ +135

Nam Phan is a funny little creature.  His boxing (especially the body shots) and cardio are relentless.  Siver is the better fighter here, not much doubt about that, but I wonder about his cardio…he cuts a lot of weight.  Herr Siver also does most of his training in Germany, his internal clock may be about 9 hours out of sync.  If Phan can survive the first round and work his boxing in the second and third rounds he may just pull off a Split Decision win.
@ +260

These are all long shots…but maybe worth a small play.  Remember, statistically speaking, the favourite only wins approximately 7 out of 10 times.  Somewhere on this card are a few fighters who have more value than the odds makers are seeing.  Find the value and you’ll  find the money.

Meahel lekha mazal tov

the Rabbi Ken Nor

Joke:  How does Moses make tea?

Hebrews it!!!!

UFC 154 Wagering

 

Shalom my mensch friends,
Here we go with the return of the French Canadian, Georges St. Pierre, possibly one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in MMA.  It is going to fun betting against him!

Recap:
I had 5 plays last event and went 3 for 5 = 60% win percentage.
I put out 55 units, I brought in 58.10 units for a profit of 3.1 units (+6%).  Not very impressive.
For those of you who want to keep score at home, large bets = 20 units, medium bets = 10 units, small bets = 5 units.  I’ll grade the bets as I go for now on.

Now, onto my UFC 154 plays…This card confounds me.  I’m not going Balls Deep (20u) on any plays this weekend.  I’m not a GSP fan by any means and am hoping for him to lose.  I’m going to make one of the biggest betting errors and bet what I want the outcome to be, rather than what I think the outcome will be – you smart people who like your money should not tail my two GSP/Condit bets, even though I feel I have justified them well.  There are also a few Dogs I may toss small bets on after I see the weigh-ins, but for the most part it’s these four bets.

Constantinos Philippou vs Nick Ring – I placed a medium sized wager (10u) on the guy with the four syllable first name.  I was impressed with his last two wins (C. McGee and R. Fukuda).  N. Ring has only fought once in 2012, and his win against C. McGee was a bit of coin toss.  My money is on the guy with the 4 fight (UFC) win streak.  I got in @ -239.
10 units to win 4.18 units

Parlay – Stout (@ -221) and Carmont (@ -254) – 5 units to win 5.12 units

GSP vs Carlos Condit 1 – I bought into Carlos with a small bet @ +310 (5u).  I think GSP has been on the shelf too long, I think his best days of fighting are behind him, and I think Carlos is going to come in with a game plan and make it work (as he did against N. Diaz).  I think Condit brings a level of aggression (especially off his back) that GSP won’t have an answer for (this won’t be Dan Hardy laying under him).  GSP’s last fight was against a seemingly docile Jake Shields, Carlos won’t be like Jake, he’ll attack every round…even from the bottom.  I think Mike Winklejohn knows GSP’s strategies/strengths/weaknesses well and will know exactly how to prepare Condit for them.  I also believe Anderson Silva sitting cage-side will play on the mind of GSP throughout the fight.
5 units to win 15.5 units

GSP vs Carlos Condit 2 – I’m going to go out even further on the High Risk limb and make one more play on this fight.  NOT GSP by Unanimous Decision.  This fight can end 8 different ways (not counting a DQ or cut/doc stop) – KO, Sub, UD, or SD for each.  I’m betting that one of the seven remaining options (plus the DQ/doc stop) will decide the outcome of this fight.  I placed a small bet (5u) @ +120.
5 units to win 6 units

Other lines I’m thinking about (post weigh-ins):

Hominick/Garza – Hominick has been a mess since his fight with J. Aldo (3 losses).  Garza has a shot at hitting the sub against any fighter, he’s a creative Jits guy (remember his sub of Yves Jabouin?).  There is no way I’d pay -225 for Hominick this fight, let alone -325 or so where he is currently sitting.  Garza @ +269…sure, why not.

Bocek/DosAnjos – If Bocek stays close to Even (-110 to +anything) I may make a small play here, too.  I think this fight is too close to call (the odds makers seem to see it the same way).  If it goes to a decision, which it very well could with two Submission fighters, I want my money on the side of the local guy.

Diabate/Griggs – Griggs will be cutting down from close to 250 lbs to 205 lbs for this fight.  That may be a bit much for the type of specimen he is.  The longer this fight goes, the better it gets for Diabate – Griggs may/will gas.  Both fighters lines opened at -114, which means it’s a pick ‘em fight…I’ll take the guy NOT cutting 40+ lbs.
***I will probably make this bet (using Live betting) after the first round.  If Diabate is able to use his jab/reach and keep Griggs on the outside for a round he should be able to control the next two rounds with more of the same.  I’ll get a lower line after the first 5 minutes but it should still be worth it.***

Garza/Bocek/Diabate parlay???  10 units wins 132.69 units – nice, but I’d have to believe in a reincarnated Jesus to make that bet.

Meahel lekha mazal tov

the Rabbi Ken Nor

UFC on Fuel TV 6 Wagering

Shalom again, friends.  Here’s the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly on the upcoming UFC on Fuel TV 6 card in China…from a gamblers perspective.

The Good:  If there was ever a UFC card that mandated Chicken balls to replace Chicken wings for the finger food of choice, this is the one.  My concubine, Mrs Nor will be serving all my Mandarin favourites for this event.

The Bad:  The live viewing of this event starts at 7:00 am.  The last time I had Chicken balls at 7:00 am I was coming home from a post Bris night of debauchery with a Mohel colleague and friend.

The Ugly:  The lines for these fights.

Here are my four bets for this card…

Le vs Franklin > Fight won’t go 5 round distance @ -200.  I got in early and went big on this bet.  If Cung Le is still standing after 5 rounds I’ll move to the Gaza Strip.  Franklin will drop Le by the 3rd/4th round, and if he can’t I’m confident Gravity will.

Danzig vs Gomi > I can see Danzig winning by Sub or UD, I can only see Gomi winning by fluke KO.  I’ve placed a medium sized wager on Mac for the win @ -200.

Fukuda vs Deblass > This is TD’s first cut to 185 lbs…and he’s doing it in China – his internal clock and digestive system should be 180 degrees completely out of whack – good luck to you, Tom, but my money is on Fukuda for the UD.  I placed a medium sized bet @ -290.

Nedkov vs Silva > This is my long shot play.  Stanny is undefeated and @ +300.  I have a hard time shunning my wallet to an undefeated fighter who pays out 3 to 1.  The bookies and line makers seem to see this as an easy win for Silva, I’m going to disagree and back it up with a small bet on the Bulgarian.

Here is your NFL parlay for the weekend:  New England, Baltimore, San Francisco, Pittsburgh (if you’re feeling Bold, try adding the NY Gaints).

As they say in China Town, “Fuk Yu!”

Meahel lekha mazal tov

the Rabbi Ken Nor

Dansette