Shalom friends and financiers
So UFC 154 was a KO victory for the odds makers and a loss for my humble Hebrew self. There are going to be nights like this every once in a while, I don’t stress it – this is the nature of gambling. By breaking my number one rule of sports betting I got what I deserved (betting the outcome I wanted to happen as opposed to the outcome I thought would happen – Condit). Let’s get back on that horse and see where it takes us this week.
My large bet for the evening will be this rather conservative parlay:
Diaz/Henderson starts round 2 @ -857
Not Gustafsson Inside the Distance @ -297
Penn/MacDonald Not a Draw @ -18500
20 units to win 10.01 units
I think this play is pretty self explanatory. If Daiz/Henderson doesn’t start the second round it probably means Diaz locked in a submission and he’s the new LW champ. It might happen, but it’s doubtful it happens in the first round. Henderson is too strong and should be able to power out of any sub attempt in the first 5 minutes. Dan Henderson hit Shogun (hard) for 5 rounds and couldn’t put him away and it took the LHW Champ, JBJ, 3 dominant rounds to finish Shogun. I don’t think Gustafsson has the power of a JBJ or Dan Henderson. Shogun may not win, but he won’t be stopped by the Swede in the allotted 15 minutes either. BJ already has 2 Draws imbedded into his stats, a third would be a bit of a statistical anomaly. Somebody is going to win that fight. Plus, it’s just enough to push my parlay to a return of 50% on my bet.
Mike Swick/Matt Brown – I have a hard time seeing how Matt Brown can win this fight, other than a controversial decision. I think he’s tough and durable, but not the most technical or proficient fighter on the UFC roster by any means. Swick is coming off a violent KO of D. Johnson and has shed any ring rust he may of had (after being out of competition for almost 30 months).
Small play on Mike Swick @ -140
5 units to win 3.57
Rory MacDonald/BJ Penn – This should be one hell of a brawl! BJ looks like he’s in great shape and ripped. He seems motivated and focused. I really like his approach and mind set for this fight. However, Rory MacDonald is in just as good of shape, if not better, and seems just as mentally ready. The tipping point for me is the Tri-Star factor. This camp has prepared for BJ a couple of times before. Training with the likes of GSP and the insight he can offer Rory is too big of a advantage to over look. My money says a well trained and aggressive Rory MacDonald gets the best of the Beej.
Small play on Rory MacDonald @ -240
5 units to win 2.08 units
One last Parlay I’m playing:
Mike Easton @ -230 and Scott Jorgensen @ -240
Scott Jorgensen is coming off a two fight lossing streak, as is John Albert. Jorgensen is the better wrestler and in order to keep his job with the UFC he needs a win. I see him dry humping/ground n’ pounding J-bert to a UD. Raphael Assuncao has faced one dominant striker in his UFC career (Erik Koch) and he lost. Now he faces another dominant striker in Mike Easton. History tends to repeat itself.
Medium play on this parlay
10 units to win 10.33 units
I probably won’t play this bet unless I see something dramatic during the weigh-ins, but those of you who are Shogun fanatics and feel the need to back($) him should consider this option. Try playing Shogun wins inside the distance @ +416 and Gustafsson wins by decision @ +135. These seem to be the most probable outcomes for the fight (Shogun has never won a decision in the UFC), and either outcome covers the off setting bet while still generating a profit.
Looking to back an Underdog? This card has a decent sized pool of those given very little chance to win (so say the odds makers). Here’s 3 Dogs I think have value:
Mauricio Rua, Joey Proctor, and Nam Phan.
If Shogun takes his time and finds an opening he may just knock the blond out of the Swede’s hair. He’s KO’d the best of the best and it’s ALWAYS a possibility when he steps in the cage. Gusty has the momentum, Shogun has the power and experience.
Ramsey Nijem should be able to control this fight with Joey Proctor. However, Tony Ferguson showed us that Ramsey isn’t good at getting hit in the face (I believe the term is ‘he’s a bit chinny’). If the Proctologist manages to connect enough to wobble or stun Ram-Jam he may buy himself enough time to jump on his back and work the sub. It’s along shot, but possibly worth a sprinkle.
Nam Phan is a funny little creature. His boxing (especially the body shots) and cardio are relentless. Siver is the better fighter here, not much doubt about that, but I wonder about his cardio…he cuts a lot of weight. Herr Siver also does most of his training in Germany, his internal clock may be about 9 hours out of sync. If Phan can survive the first round and work his boxing in the second and third rounds he may just pull off a Split Decision win.
These are all long shots…but maybe worth a small play. Remember, statistically speaking, the favourite only wins approximately 7 out of 10 times. Somewhere on this card are a few fighters who have more value than the odds makers are seeing. Find the value and you’ll find the money.
Meahel lekha mazal tov
the Rabbi Ken Nor
Joke: How does Moses make tea?